Want A True Formula For Success? Prepare For Luck.

Greg Satell
6 min readJun 1, 2024
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One of my favorite podcasts is Derek Thompson’s Plain English and, on a recent episode, he focused on how Stanley water bottles got so popular. It’s a great story that involves a heritage-laden, 166-year-old company, a group of Mormon mothers, astute executives and social media. It’s hard not to listen to the podcast and be inspired to follow in Stanley’s footsteps.

That would be a mistake. As Thompson points out on the podcast and in his book, Hit Makers, runaway successes are unique. They succeed by doing things differently. If everybody followed in the same footsteps, it would be hard for any of them to break away from the pack.

The simple fact is that there is no tried-and-true formula for success. We can compute the odds any way we want, but the truth is that mathematics tells us anything can happen. Take a look at any runaway success and luck played an important part. Yet results aren’t completely random either. We all have luck, both good and bad, the difference is how you prepare for it.

The Strange, Cosmic Quality Of Flukes

I’m of the generation that grew up watching the hit show Happy Days and remember fondly its theme song, “Rock Around the Clock” performed by Bill Haley & His Comets. The song was chosen, I am sure, because as one of the most…

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Greg Satell

Co-Founder: ChangeOS | Bestselling Author, Keynote Speaker, Wharton Lecturer, HBR Contributor, - Learn more at www.GregSatell.com