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The Science Behind Why Massive Change Seems To Happen All At Once
Humans tend to think about things in a linear way. We assume progress happens step by step — losing a little weight for the summer, putting money into a college fund, growing a business customer by customer. We measure, plan, and execute accordingly. One day follows the next, and we try to make a little progress towards our goals
Yet many have observed that shifts are often abrupt. Hemingway, quite famously, described change as happening, “gradually, then suddenly.” Thomas Kuhn explained how revolutions unfold in abrupt paradigm shifts. Mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot described change in terms of Noah effects and Joseph effects, with massive shocks disrupting periods of continuity.
Yet these are more than just interesting observations. For decades, scientists have uncovered the natural forces that underlie how change happens. Once we understand these principles, we can learn to notice the telltale signs and anticipate opportunities before events take us by surprise. That can help us work toward the kind of outcomes we want to see.
The Anatomy Of An Instantaneous Phase Transition
Imagine throwing a party for a hundred complete strangers, divided into small groups. There’s some mingling as well. Every five minutes, two people…
