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Here’s How To Think About Artificial Intelligence, Jobs And The Economy
It’s hard to believe that ChatGPT launched in November 2022, just two and a half years ago. In that short span, AI has become deeply embedded in our personal and professional lives, often serving as a constant companion: answering questions, offering feedback, and sometimes even pointing us in new directions.
So it shouldn’t be surprising that many are asking what it all means for the future. Are we heading toward a utopia of super-productive machines and widespread abundance? Or are we hurtling inevitably toward a Matrix-like dystopian nightmare in which we are subjugated by machines and the oligarchs who control them?
History is long and varied, so there are plenty of examples to support both the utopian and dystopian view. The future is unknowable. Yet by this point, we know a lot about innovation so we have some good models to make judgements. When it comes to technology, jobs and the economy, we need to look at three effects: displacement, productivity and reinstatement.
The Displacement Effect
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution technology has displaced labor. The Luddite movement in the early 19th century smashed automated mills to protect the jobs of skilled weavers. In 1900, 30 million people in the United…
