2024: A Pivotal Year
There was big news in Somalia a few weeks ago. The country’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had passed enough reforms to qualify for debt forgiveness by the IMF and the World Bank, re-enter the global financial system and join into the East African Community, an important regional block.
Yet few noticed. With war raging in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as complete disarray in the US Congress, progress in a troubled country in the Global South doesn’t warrant much attention. While the global economy — especially in the US — seems to have recovered from the shock of the pandemic, I can’t remember when there has been so much chaos.
Last year I wrote that we would see a shift of focus from disruption to resilience and that’s largely been true. It’s hard to imagine anyone would argue for shaking things up more than they are now. The question for 2024 is what comes after? It’s fairly clear that a new world order is emerging, but not at all clear what it will look like. Our future lies in the balance.
A Historic Convergence Of Forces
A few years back, I wrote that there are eerie parallels between the 1920s and today. Some are obvious, such as a global pandemic and the emergence of a great power rivalry. Others, like a surge in immigration (and the ensuing backlash) and significant technological disruption, are less…
